2025’s M&A Love Letter

Dearest Dealmakers,

I see you. You said 2025 would be huge and you weren’t wrong. When the dust settled, global announced M&A value hit roughly $5.1 trillion, almost 50% higher than 2024 and the biggest year since the stimulus‑fueled frenzy of 2021.

That’s not just growth, that’s love compounding. Call it the annual bouquet of cash and stock that you keep handing to your shareholders.

Roses are red, megadeals are too: by mid‑December you had notched 71 transactions worth more than $10 billion, the most in at least four decades. Twenty‑two of those jumbo love letters were written in the fourth quarter alone. 

Overall deal count slipped 6% to about 38,000 transactions, but who needs quantity when total value surged to over $5 trillion and the average ticket swelled far beyond the $100 million mark? After all, size matters. No one ever wrote a sonnet about a $200 million roll‑up.

To the lovers of scale: you didn’t just flirt with big numbers, you married them.

Among those seventy $10+ billion love affairs, at least four cleared the $50 billion bar, including a $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts (the largest LBO ever) and Union Pacific’s $88.2 billion wooing of Norfolk Southern. That’s not a bouquet, that’s the amount of flowers your VP buys the wife he neglects.  

For my international friends, cupid’s arrows are crossing borders, too. Cross‑border M&A surged by 46% to about $1.24 trillion, the highest since 2021. After all, love knows no boundaries, especially when a permissive antitrust regime and cheap financing make it easier to date abroad. 

Of course, every great romance faces obstacles. Tariff tantrums and big‑tech antitrust crackdowns left many suitors on edge, sending the VIX index higher and causing CEOs to ghost their bankers.

Alas, as the year progressed comfort returned, and dealmakers realized they could navigate the trade landscape. Like any relationship, timing is everything; a punishing tariff is just a lover’s quarrel on a macro scale.

So this year, put down the DCF model and pick up a fountain pen. Tell your favorite target how you feel. Whisper sweet nothings about synergies and cost savings. Promise them a breakup fee if you must. After all, nothing warms the heart like a go‑shop clause or a share price chart that looks like a romantic crescendo. 

Yours in love and leverage,
Buysiders

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_{NEWS ROUNDUP}

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2026 Sees Its First Divorce

Dear Glencore Shareholders,

We had such grand plans. For months, we flirted with the idea of fusing our ore empires to create the world’s largest miner with a market value north of $200 billion. 

We talked about consolidating iron ore, copper and coal under one roof, and whispered sweet nothings about a $260 billion portfolio.

We even dangled a 30% premium and a roughly 62/38 ownership split to persuade you to say “I do”. Our bankers were already sketching synergies on napkins and planning where to buy their next home with their cut of the fees.

Then reality hit.

You wanted around 40% of the combined company, but we thought our copper business deserved a bigger slice. You called it greed; we called it self-respect. The lawyers called it 6 more minutes. We’d already tried this dance twice before, in 2014 and 2024, and the rhythm still felt off. So we left you at the altar.

When the breakup news hit, the market reacted like mutual friends gossiping over brunch. Your shares dropped about 7% and ours slid 2.6%.

Analysts wondered why we couldn’t make it work; some said it was the 30% premium, others blamed our differing love languages (valuation methodologies). Under British law we’re not allowed to talk to each other for six months. Maybe that’s for the best, but I secretly hope you will reach out sooner.

Consider this our official breakup note.

We’ll always remember those heady days of drawing synergy diagrams and planning conference‑call vows. We might lock eyes across a mining conference one day, or wave from across the Pilbara, but for now our paths diverge.

Yours in copper (and heartbreak),
Rio Tinto Shareholders