BUYSIDERS M&A WISHLIST

He’s Making a List, Checking it Twice

No, it isn’t Christmas time. As our OG subscribers know, that’s when I run my awards show; however, with the announcement of the largest transaction of the year earlier this month, I was left wondering… “what are other mega-deals that we thought were impossible but now might have a glimmer of hope?” So, I decided to make a wishlist.

While your VP is registering for his baby gifts, we here at Buysiders are registering for more deals. If you are an MD at Goldman and you’re reading this, all we want is a finders fee (we are flexible on pricing):

1. Amazon x FedEx (~$65 billion) | Because two-day shipping for your anti-trust subpoena just isn’t good enough.

   1. I have long been a proponent of the US government selling the post office to Amazon, but realistically, Amazon wouldn’t take over such a loss making enterprise.

   2. If Amazon and FedEx were to combine, it would create the largest logistics company in the world, with a reach across the entire US and allow for vertical integration for Amazon.

   3. The deal would be a regulatory nightmare, and there are significant potential union and labor issues, as well as anti-trust concerns.

   4. Deal Likelihood: 5/10. It’s not impossible given they are not really direct competitors, but it is unlikely to say the least.

   5. If you thought your delivery was fast now, wait until Bezos has a freight train roll through your living room for 2 hour delivery.

2. Tesla x General Motors (~$61 billion) | This is Elonimus Prime - xBots, roll-out.

   1. GM used to be an American icon, one of the most well-known and well-respected car brands in the US (as if that’s an accomplishment).

   2. Over time though, GM has failed to innovate, which has resulted in it facing declining sales, increases in costs and ongoing losses in market share.

   3. Tesla has had a meteoric rise on the other hand, but continues to struggle on deliveries and hitting its numbers.

   4. With the hype surrounding anything Elon touches, maybe an “xMotors” is on the horizon, bringing some tech vibes to an old business.

   5. Deal Likelihood: 7/10. That’s right, I’ll stand by it. Elon is insane, Trump either loves or hates him, but more importantly - Trump wants to keep American manufacturing in America. There will come an inflection point for car companies in the US as we struggle to compete with foreign manufacturing, so what will it be? A US Steel x Nippon deal or maybe a domestic roll-up?

   6. Introducing the new Tesla Silverado, for the blue-collar worker who loves the environment. 60% of the time, self-driving works 100% of the time.

3. Netflix x Warner Bros Discovery (~$37.5 billion) | I thought that Max needed one more rebrand this year, so what do we think? Netflix Max? NetMax? MaxFlix?

   1. Another deal with mega-potential but this one is actually an achievable size.

   2. In a bid to compete with Disney, Netflix could look to roll-up the likes of Warner Bros and take a much larger content library in house and also consolidate Max…or HBO Max…or HBO? I have no idea anymore.

   3. This would create a massive streaming empire that would be able to compete with Disney’s content machine, while also controlling much of the streaming market.

   4. Deal Likelihood: 7.5/10. Listen, all of these are long shots but Max sucks. If you take Max’s content library and Warner Bros’ content library and consolidate them into Netflix’s existing user base and platform, this could genuinely be a home run. This should also have less anti-trust concerns than the other ones on this list, so maybe it is achievable.

   5. At least this time when your favorite show is cancelled, you’ll only have one login to cancel.

4. JP Morgan x Goldman Sachs (~$260 billion) | Nothing else from my end, thanks.

   1. I know, I know this one is a pipe dream and super unlikely due to anti-trust concerns, but GS and JP Morgan would definitely have some synergies.

   2. They compete against each other on literally every deal, so why not work together instead? Additionally, they could actually keep their analysts working there if they controlled all of the big deals on Wall Street…

   3. There is also a significant amount of overhead bloating (RIP to the NJ offices) at both of these companies. They definitely have duplicative compliance teams - as well as banking staff - that could easily be eliminated as part of the deal.

   4. Plus - they could advise themselves and net a fee just for showing up to the closing call!

   5. Deal Likelihood: 2/10. I’m not delusional, but in a world where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac go public and $100 billion of M&A gets announced in a week, who knows?

   6. The good news is, if you lead this deal, you can retire before they fire you to achieve the synergies you forecasted.

5. Apple x Disney (~$320 billion) | Sent from my iPhone (in Mickey voice).

   1. Again, another crazy large deal but this one makes a bit more sense. I mean at least in America, everyone has an iPhone, like everyone.

   2. What do you use your iPhone for? Everything but calling, and especially streaming.

   3. This deal does actually play for both sides, Apple gets a streaming service that works and has good content, and Disney gets wired into one of the most prominent software and hardware packages globally.

   4. With vertical integration across devices, IP, and distribution which would cause every regulator on earth to update their LinkedIn.

   5. Deal Likelihood: 3/10. Given that Apple is just a mutual fund that sells iPhones and is allergic to debt, a $320 billion acquisition may be too much; however, it has some strategic merit and may be crazy enough to allow Cook to engrave his name next to Jobs’ in the annals of tech history.

   6. The good news is, despite overpaying for your phone and streaming, at least we can finally get a theme park in Cupertino.

There you have it, my M&A deal registry. If you want to buy us one - drop a comment, Buysiders Advisors is happy to provide our intern to help with all marketing materials in exchange for our finders fee. Don’t worry, he can’t leave for PE either.

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